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Liberty Preview Day 1 of 5
Ok, we all know what is next. The Liberty Flames finally find their way to Las Cruces after NM State had to travel 3 times in a row to Lynchburg. I am pretty sure the Aggies have their favorite Sheetz that they go to there.
For those of you who don’t know Sheetz is a very popular gas station.
Think of an upscale Pic Quik.
Anyway, The Aggies finally get to host a home game. 8:15pm on Saturday night. I love it. It will be dark before I even get to my seat. That’s heaven for me. It will be on national TV, ESPN2, although if you have DirecTV, you might be burned out of seeing your beloved Aggies on TV. There’s another carriage dispute going on. Do yourself a favor. Complain on their Facebook page and they will talk to you and they will give you $20 off this month!
Ok, no more insider information :)
Liberty Flames were undefeated through the regular season and the CUSA Title game last year. They were picked to be in the New Year’s 6 bowl game over Florida State, back when FSU was good. I hear they lost again tonight!
Kaidon Salter after entering the transfer portal and flirting with Auburn, the team that Pavia and the boys destroyed last year, he remained at Liberty. Sources pinned his NIL value at $1.5 million. Crazy amount for a college player, but no longer unprecedented.
Some say he might not be a good pro, but he’s not in the pros now. He’s on Liberty, and his presence to go along with the nation’s leading rushing offense in 2023 has led to a very high point spread for this game. More on that in a bit.
But Liberty had some issues last week. They played in a dogfight with the Campbell Camels, or as I called them as a kid, Campbell Campbells.
While the margin was 17, Campbell was in it the whole first half, playing the Flames tough. In fact, it took a weather delay for Liberty got their stuff together. But Liberty won, and they have not lost a regular season game since 2022!
Salter had over 240 yards passing and 48 yards rushing. Quinton Cooley, Liberty’s bowling ball, who resembles a modern Maurice Jones-Drew (Remember him) had 110 yards on the day and Treon Sibley had a hundred yard receiving day. All of these players had their way with NM State last year, in some form.
Salter, Cooley, and Sibley left to right
From the layperson perspective, I wondered aloud if Liberty is as good as 13-1 last year this year. My only counter to myself on that was Liberty’s performance in basketball last year. The team that dominated the ASUN conference in 2022-23 was brought back mostly intact for the next season, and they trailed off a little bit.
Aggies would hope that was the case here, because as of now, Vegas and the books see it the other way!
AGGIES 22.5 POINT UNDERDOGS AGAINST LIBERTY
ESPNBET, which is not exactly lighting the world on fire in sports betting, but their lines are usually right on, have the Aggies as more than 3-touchdown underdogs at home on Saturday night. For a national TV game, that’s very unorthodox. The number is currently 22.5 points
Now I know some of you may not know or care what the betting line is. Some of you will never lay down a bet in your life, but you got to appreciate what a big margin this is.
Let’s focus on the ML. Liberty is a -2500 favorite. So if you bet $100 on Liberty, you will make a profit of $4. That’s how sure of a thing the sports world thinks it is.
To that point, Aggies are +1200 dogs. If you bet $100 on the Aggies you would win $1,200. That’s hefty. They say Vegas doesn’t give money away. I would normally concur with that. So this is not gambling advice here, but I do say, if you are going to bet on this game, and you have the expectation Liberty will win, I would focus on the spread or total points. I do believe it will be high scoring in some form.
Would I bet this game? Well, you can’t bet it in NM I believe still. But anywhere else, I would not be laying a bet on it. Too many uncertainties.
Reminder though, Aggies were a bigger underdog the day Diego Pavia got 6 TDs at Liberty in 2022. So there’s that.
Parker Awad Gets the Starting Nod Against Liberty
Tony Sanchez lived in Vegas for a lot of years. He knows the meaning of distraction because the whole city can be over there. He made it clear in sleepy Las Cruces there would be NO distraction as it pertains to QB.
Parker Awad, he of 37 passing yards and 5 completions will get the nod. In fact, Sanchez said, “For Sure” when it came to Awad starting. That is an emphatic belief in his 19-year old QB, and used his youth and inexperience as reasons for the poor debut.
Commentary: I will give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt here. It was the first game, and sometimes going from a place where 50 people watch you to 250x that can freak you out if not used to it. But I do believe that Sanchez will have a quicker hook if Awad is ineffective. Saturday is not the type of game you want to fall behind in.
Btw, Parker’s QBR (which is ESPNs patented QB rating system had him 127th in QB rating. There are 134 teams. Here’s hoping for a better showing next week.
Sanchez on the Aggies Radio Show
I will be honest. I never listened to any of the coaches shows. It was never my thing. But of course with AGGREGATOR, I feel that a more relaxed setting, buoyed by the intoxicating aroma of creamed corn at Rudy’s, maybe the coaches will open up a little more. So I listened, and here’s a couple of quick bulletpoints.
(BTW, I will have a better graphic for Sanchez next time around)
“We are playing the best rushing game in the country last year. We have to get stops against Liberty and and get our passing game going in order to win.”
“Last week’s crowd gave the team juice. You are trying to make a comeback and you hear the cowbells rattling and it makes a big difference.” (He mentioned Saturday’s game being a whiteout)
"I believe there’s a rivalry between us and Liberty. We have to go out and win these games for more fuel for the fire. (2-5 all time vs LU) They might be the best team we play. (Texas A&M taking strays)
“The biggest thing with Liberty is Salter. He’s dynamic. He’s got a great arm. They have a quality backfield with a lot of depth. They play man coverage on defense. They are a really good team. We expect a hell of a game on Saturday Night.”
No doubt special teams helped us win the game. Kicking in the wind on the 51 yard FG (for Montano) was scary but it was outstanding when it went through. He had been good from 65+ in camp. Also Kordell David blocking a punt on special teams helped a lot.
Tayden Barnes named Player of the Week
Tayden Barnes had 9 tackles and the game-clinching INT on Saturday, and CUSA awarded him with Player of the Week status. It was a great honor for Barnes, who was looking to make his mark early in this season.
Thanks for checking out this column + Pilot Episode of the podcast. More to come really soon. You know I never turn my brain off…
James
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