Numbers Never Lie: 2024-2025 Comparisons for Kennesaw State and NM State + Would they have beat us in 2024???

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This Numbers Never Lie column is an interesting one because I went back and looked at the struggling Kennesaw State Owls team from 2024 — a 2–10 squad that fired its head coach mid-season. That move was controversial at the time, considering he was the same coach who built the program and led them to all their FCS success.

But when I really looked at their schedule and their numbers, it wasn’t as bad as it looked. It just felt like the chips didn’t fall their way in key moments.

Meanwhile, the Aggies had their own frustrations in 2024 — particularly at quarterback. Fast-forward to 2025: the QB play is a bit better, but the rushing attack has disappeared.

And now, suddenly, Kennesaw State is a powerhouse in Conference USA.

So I wanted to break down how the Owls flipped the script — show you some notable differences in 2025 stats for both teams — and then, using what I’ve done most of the season, run 1,888 simulations with 2024 data to see if New Mexico State would’ve beaten Kennesaw last year if they had played.

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🦉 From Bottom 10 to Contender: How Kennesaw State Flipped the Script in 2025

One year ago, Kennesaw State was the weekly punchline in ESPN’s Bottom 10 column. A 2–10 team struggling to score, bleeding yards, and searching for purpose in its first year of FBS life.

Fast forward to October 2025, and Jerry Mack’s Owls are 6-2, unbeaten in Conference USA, and look nothing like the expansion-year prototype.
Here’s where they’ve taken flight — and why the Owls are one of college football’s most improved programs.

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Points on the Board

Kennesaw’s offense isn’t just surviving — it’s thriving. The Owls are putting up nearly 10 more points per game and showing rhythm they didn’t have in 2024.

2024: 16.5 PPG
2025: 26.3 PPG

Balanced play-calling and quarterback stability have turned a toothless offense into one that finishes drives.