Hey there, Aggies fans. Hope you’re having a great Friday.
As mentioned, this is being published a little later than normal because we’re now a little more than 24 hours from New Mexico State-Hawai‘i at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.
Kickoff is at 6 p.m. Hawai‘i Standard Time, which means 10 p.m. New Mexico time. If the game lasts three and a half hours, we’re looking at a 1:30 a.m. finish in Las Cruces. So get the coffee ready.
But before we get to the football, James Baca’s Crimson Crazy No. 3 is going to give you a full preview and prediction, along with the original story that makes it Crimson Crazy.
And this one should be nostalgic for a lot of people who grew up in the ‘60s, ‘70s and even the early ‘80s.
I figured, you know what? We’re playing Hawai‘i. We’re talking about the islands. What the heck?
Let’s throw it back to Jack Lord.
That’s below. Entertainment first, football preview second.
A quick reminder before we get crazy...
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Now, enough business.
We’ve got a case to solve.
James Baca’s Crimson Crazy
A majority of my childhood was spent at my grandparents’ house whenever my mom and dad had to work long hours as a head chef and restaurant manager at the Owl Bar in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
That meant I got to hang out with my grandma and grandpa. I got to eat their food. I got to sit there and watch the news with them, which is probably a big reason why I became so interested in the news in the first place.
And, of course, there were reruns, reruns, reruns.
The Andy Griffith Show. Happy Days. Laverne & Shirley. All kinds of stuff from the ’60s and ’70s that had already come and gone by the time I was old enough to watch television.
My grandparents had their shows. Yes, they loved Matlock. But every once in a while, especially with my grandpa, I’d catch some Hawaii Five-O.
So I know “Book ’em, Danno.” I know Jack Lord. I know that incredible theme song. And I know that Hawaii Five-O became one of those television shows that just never really went away.
The original lasted 12 seasons. Decades later, CBS brought it back, and the reboot had a pretty impressive run of its own before ending in 2020. There’s a legacy there.
And in a lot of ways, the show was a love letter to Hawai‘i.
So when I started thinking about what I was going to do for a prediction column with New Mexico State traveling all the way to Honolulu, the nostalgia got me.
I had to go there.
What you’re about to read is an original Hawaii Five-O-inspired story written by me specifically for this game. And with the power of artificial intelligence, I was able to create some imagery to help tell it.
So here’s my brief disclaimer before we get started:
Every idea, joke, word and football prediction in this column was written or dictated by yours truly, James Baca, author of AGGREGATOR. The accompanying images were generated using artificial intelligence visual storytelling tools. They’re here to help tell the story, provide some lighthearted fun and hopefully make football a little more entertaining and accessible — even if you’re the most casual football fan imaginable.
And if you don’t want the Hawaii Five-O story?
That’s okay, too.
Look for the gigantic picture of Jack Lord in the middle of this column. Once you get there, it’s nothing but football. There are some football-related points to tomorrow’s game within the Five-O story, they are in Crimson.
But if you want to have a little fun first, come join me in the 50th state in the Union, why don’t you?
P.S. Some of the Tony Sanchez in suit with Jack Lord’s hair kind of look like someone in high office at times. Haha. I think it’s the windswept hair Jack Lord had that made the solid Coach Sanchez look…Presidential.
Yes, I threw my face on Danno…
Scene: Royal Hawaiian Hotel
The NM State Aggies are in Honolulu for their biggest, most important game of the season. They are looking to be presented with a win on Late Saturday/Early Sunday.
Two Nights Before the game….
The Crimson W was taken under the watchful eye of NM State-hired security by an unknown man.
This seems like a case for Steve McGarrett
McGARRETT: Last night at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel, someone stole a Crimson Ruby W from the New Mexico State team hotel, two days before the game.
The rented cops were asleep, but eyewitnesses reported seeing a man dressed in an all-black cat-burglar suit, wearing some sort of ancient Hawaiian-style wooden ceremonial mask to conceal his identity. He put the crimson ruby W into a knapsack and fled through a pool party that was going on at the time. Then he vanished into the night.
People at New Mexico State tell us a win is invaluable — particularly when that win comes in Hawai‘i.
DANNO: Yeah, Steve. Sometimes those Ws are hard to come by, especially after a long trip. And something like a crimson ruby W? That’s invaluable to the New Mexico State team. We’re going to have a lot of work ahead of us.
McGARRETT: Danno, I live for this work. There was one clue.
McGARRETT: The cat burglar must have dropped this when he was putting the Crimson W into his knapsack. It’s a piece of paper with the New Mexico State University logo on it — and an ink pen.
Someone wrote four numbers on the paper: 60, 17, 22 and 23.
That’s got to mean something to someone.
DANNO: Maybe it’s a safe combination.
McGARRETT: Not a lot of safes have a four-number combination, Danno.
DANNO: Maybe it’s a hit list. Players he wants to get rid of.
McGARRETT: Quite possibly. But if you’ve already committed a crime by stealing something as priceless as the Crimson W, why would you want to take out any players?
DANNO: That’s a good point.
McGARRETT: We’re going to think long and hard about what these numbers mean. And we’re going to get to the bottom of it.
DANNO: This is gonna be a tough one to crack.
As we all know, New Mexico State has missed out on a lot of Ws when playing Hawai‘i in football. The Rainbow Warriors historically own an 11-1 record against the Aggies in a series that dates back to Nov. 11, 1978.
Ironically enough, when these two teams first met, Hawaii Five-O was still one of the most popular shows on American television. CBS was airing the show’s 11th season, and plenty of television classics were filling the schedule around it: Barnaby Jones, Barney Miller, Fantasy Island, The Love Boat, Eight Is Enough, One Day at a Time, M*A*S*H, Little House on the Prairie, All in the Family, Charlie’s Angels, 60 Minutes — still my favorite show — Three’s Company, Happy Days and Laverne & Shirley.
The Aggies’ lone victory over the Rainbow Warriors came in Las Cruces on Sept. 24, 2022, a 45-26 win. Jerry Kill was the head coach, Diego Pavia was at quarterback, and the New Mexico State offense was finally beginning to rev on all cylinders.
A year later, during New Mexico State’s remarkable 10-win season, the Aggies went back to Honolulu and Hawai‘i beat them at the horn, 20-17. That loss ended up being New Mexico State’s last for more than two months. The Aggies didn’t lose again until Dec. 1 in the Conference USA Championship Game.
Even during the best New Mexico State football season in more than 60 years, the Aggies still couldn’t get the W in Hawai‘i.
Now the Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 after a difficult opening stretch against Stanford and UNLV. They’re struggling, they’re back home, and they’re going to be looking pretty desperately for a W of their own Saturday night.
Crimson ruby or otherwise.
Looking for Clues and Suspects
McGarrett and Danno leave the office and begin patrolling the grounds of the Royal Hawaiian Hotel, looking for potential clues — and suspects.
DANNO: Steve, check it out. Witnesses said they saw someone wearing an ancient Polynesian-style Hawaiian mask. That dancer over there is wearing exactly what they described.
McGARRETT: What the devil? Let’s go see what this guy’s about.
DANNO: Excuse me, sir. Danny Williams, Hawaii Five-O. We’d like to have a word with you.
MASKED MAN: (muffled) I’m working here. Can’t you see that I’m performing?
McGARRETT: McGarrett, Hawaii Five-O. We need to ask you a few questions.
MASKED MAN: (muffled) I’m working here! You’re gonna get me fired!
McGarrett and Danno grab the man. McGarrett pulls the ceremonial mask from his face.
McGARRETT: Oh, for heaven’s sake.
DANNO: Doug Martin? Former New Mexico State football coach? What are you doing here?
DOUG MARTIN: I’d like to ask you the same thing.
McGARRETT: We got word that somebody stole New Mexico State’s priceless Crimson W from the team hotel last night. Several eyewitnesses described a man wearing that exact same kind of mask. Now we come out here and find you wearing one. Don’t you think we’d find that just a little odd?
DANNO: Yeah. Word on the street is sometimes your decision-making cost New Mexico State quite a few of those Ws. (James: HAHAHA)
DOUG MARTIN: Ha, ha. That’s not funny. And no, I wasn’t anywhere near this place last night. It was my day off.
McGARRETT: Well, what were you doing?
DOUG MARTIN: None of your beeswax, McGarrett. I have a love-hate relationship with that school as it is.
I took that team to a bowl game in 2017. First time they’d done anything like that since 1960. Whenever I wanted upgrades or improvements to the facilities, I generally got the cold shoulder.
And the local media barely covered us. We were arguably the most successful football team in the Borderland, and they still couldn’t be bothered.
Heck, the local news once did a story about a tree growing in the stands at Aggie Memorial Stadium rather than talk about our football team.
So, yeah, you can understand why I’m a little bitter.
When I left, my desire for coaching pretty much left with me. Yeah, I’ve been a couple of places since, but nothing has given me pleasure quite like entertaining vacationers here in the 50th state.
McGARRETT: Wow. Sounds like you’ve got a lot to work through, Doug.
McGarrett reaches into his pocket and produces the mysterious note.
McGARRETT: Does this mean anything to you, Mr. Martin?
Martin studies the numbers: 60. 17. 22. 23.
DOUG MARTIN: Yeah. A couple of those numbers mean something to me.
McGARRETT: Such as?
DOUG MARTIN: You already know it’s not me, so why should I help you, copper? You seem to know an awful lot about my past. Use that detective work of yours and figure it out.
DANNO: Thank you, Mr. Martin. Take care.
DOUG MARTIN: Yeah, whatever.
McGARRETT: Well, that was a dead end.
Some Football Insight
Going into Saturday’s game, it’s really hard to figure out exactly what New Mexico State’s first two games tell us.
The Aggies opened against Florida State, a Power Four program that just three years ago was in the national championship conversation. Then came Mercyhurst, an FCS team New Mexico State beat 51-14 — and one that lost its quarterback during the game.
So, yeah, the numbers from the first two weeks probably mean something to somebody. I’m just not sure they mean much to me yet.
New Mexico State is currently the 59th-ranked scoring offense in the country at 34 points per game, while Hawai‘i is 99th. If you had asked me before the season to guess which team would rank where after two games, I probably would’ve had those backward.
Both teams are in the 90s nationally in scoring defense. New Mexico State is allowing 24 points per game, while Hawai‘i is giving up 29.
But here’s the one that really surprised me: passing offense.
Trey Hedden and the Aggies are averaging 295 passing yards per game, good for 39th nationally. Technically, that number also includes Adam DeMonte’s touchdown pass last week. Hawai‘i, meanwhile, with preseason Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Micah Alejado and his backup, is averaging 227.5 passing yards, ranking 68th.
I am stunned by that. I would’ve figured it was the other way around.
The bigger picture isn’t particularly flattering for Hawai‘i, either. The Rainbow Warriors rank 103rd nationally in total offense and 104th in total defense.
New Mexico State is much closer to the middle of the pack. The Aggies rank 57th in total offense at 436.5 yards per game and 71st in total defense at 328 yards allowed per game.
That defensive number still needs to improve, but this is also why I’m hesitant to put too much stock into any of these rankings after only two games. Florida State is Florida State. Mercyhurst is Mercyhurst. The quality of competition has been on opposite ends of the spectrum.
Saturday night in Honolulu should finally give us something in the middle.
And maybe then some of these numbers will actually mean something.
Better to be Lucky Than Good
McGarrett and Danno continue their patrol near the Royal Hawaiian Hotel, with no new leads and seemingly nowhere else to turn.
DANNO: Well, Steve, I don’t know. It looks like we’re licked.
McGARRETT: Don’t be so sure, Danno. Sometimes opportunity just finds you wherever you—
McGarrett suddenly stops.
McGARRETT: What in the devil is that?
A few yards away, a street musician has his back turned to them, strumming a guitar and singing a country tune for passing tourists. Beside him sits a large tip jar.
Tied to it is a familiar-looking mask.
DANNO: Steve... that looks like the mask.
McGARRETT: You’re right.
McGarrett and Danno quickly approach the musician from behind.
McGARRETT: Hawaii Five-O! Stop what you’re doing!
The music stops. The busker slowly turns around.
McGarrett and Danno freeze.
DANNO: Wait a second...
McGARRETT: Is that Marty Robbins?
DANNO: Acclaimed country music sensation Marty Robbins?
McGarrett points toward the mask tied to the tip jar.
McGARRETT: Mr. Robbins, we’d like to know why you have that mask.
MARTY ROBBINS: The mask? I... I was given it as a gift. Yeah. A gift.
McGarrett looks at Danno.
Danno looks back at McGarrett.
There’s a long pause.
DANNO: Steve...
McGARRETT: I know.
DANNO: I think we got our guy.
McGarrett keeps his eyes fixed on Robbins.
McGARRETT: And he happens to be a pretty big fish.
Why’d You Do It?
After taking Marty Robbins back to Hawaii Five-O headquarters, a quick search of his belongings turns up exactly what McGarrett and Danno have been looking for: the priceless crimson ruby W. Robbins sits handcuffed in a chair as McGarrett stands across from him, ready for an explanation.
McGARRETT: So tell me something, Mr. Robbins. Why are you, of all people, singing on the streets of Hawai‘i when you’re a big recording artist? People love your tunes. You’re out there making pennies when you should be making millions. And second, why are you committing grand theft over a football team’s missing W?
MARTY ROBBINS: Well, McGarrett, it’s complicated. Back in late 1959, I wrote a song about El Paso called, well, El Paso. I wanted to celebrate the town that I fell in love with. Yes, I mention going into the badlands of New Mexico in the song, too, but that song was my serenade to Rosa’s Cantina, El Paso and a city that’s different.
McGARRETT: City Different? That’s actually Santa Fe, Marty. So tell me, why’d you do it?
MARTY ROBBINS: I became a fan of their football team in the late ‘50s, and I just wanted to be part of that community. But then came 1960. Texas Western went 4-5-1 in the Border Conference, while those guys up the road at New Mexico State went undefeated.
In the last game of the regular season, New Mexico State beat Texas Western 27-15 at Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces. Then the Aggies got invited to play in the Sun Bowl at Kidd Field — Texas Western’s own field in El Paso — and they won the damn thing.
I don’t know, McGarrett. I guess I never got over it. Granted, Texas Western, now UTEP, has been to bowl games since then. In fact, we’ve been to nine of them. But we haven’t won one in a long time, and we’ve never won a bowl game outside of El Paso, Texas. So, yeah, I’m a little bitter.
Danno looks at McGarrett, then at Robbins, before his eyes settle on the mysterious note sitting on McGarrett’s desk. Suddenly, the numbers begin to make sense.
DANNO: Steve, that’s what those numbers mean: 60, 17, 22 and 23. 1960, New Mexico State went undefeated and won the Sun Bowl against Utah State. In 2017, the Aggies finally got back to a bowl game and beat Utah State in the Arizona Bowl. In 2022, they won another bowl game, this time against Bowling Green. And 2023...
McGARRETT: Not exactly New Mexico State’s brightest moment.
DANNO: Maybe not, but it was a 10-win season, something New Mexico State hadn’t done since 1960. Is that right, Mr. Robbins?
MARTY ROBBINS: That’s right. In 1960, you folks won all 11 games. In 2017, you guys got seven wins. In 2022, you got another seven. Then in 2023, you folks won 10. Texas Western, now known as UTEP — El Paso, the town that I love — has won more than eight games only once in a season since those dastardly Aggies won 11 games in 1960. NMSU has a leg up on us. Been a struggle since Stull left.
McGARRETT: Well, sounds like someone’s a little jealous of what’s been going on up in Las Cruces.
MARTY ROBBINS: Yeah, I’m jealous. And I wanted to take their W here in Hawai‘i. They’ve already lost 11 of the last 12 they’ve played against Hawai‘i. I figured, what’s one more? We aren’t going to win much this year ourselves, so I’d rather sabotage our rivals. We would count that as a win.
McGarrett looks at Robbins for a moment before picking up the crimson ruby W from his desk.
McGARRETT: Well, Mr. Robbins, your days of stealing Ws and letting your jealousy get the better of you have come to an end.
McGarrett turns toward Danno.
McGARRETT: Book ‘em, Danno.
THE NEXT DAY...
After Hawaii Five-O informed the New Mexico State football team that its priceless Crimson Ruby W had been recovered, the Aggies took the field in Honolulu with a little extra fire.
Maybe getting your W back does something to a football team.
New Mexico State played a spirited game and defeated the Hawai‘i Rainbow Warriors, 28-21 in Honolulu.
(And yes, that’s my actual final score prediction.)
Afterward, dignitaries from Honolulu and both universities gathered on the field for a special presentation. McGarrett, whose detective work had recovered the stolen W and brought the culprit to justice, was given the honor of returning it to the New Mexico State football team.
Standing on the field, McGarrett presented the Crimson Ruby W to the victorious Aggies.
It was a fitting end to the case.
(BTW, I tried to mimic this NMSU Helmet)
And maybe there was a message in all of this.
No matter where you are in this country, if you’re a law-abiding citizen and something happens to you, you hope the law will be there to help you.
McGarrett and Hawaii Five-O certainly came through for New Mexico State.
Now we can only hope the real Aggies can find a W of their own Saturday night in Honolulu.
New Mexico State 28, Hawai‘i 21.
The End.
2 Things: I know it was 70s-esque, and we shifted into current CFB and stuff that happened after when it was set, but it’s a TV show and you got to suspend disbelief. :)
Second, I never realized the Scooby-Doo-ness of Hawaii Five-O until writing this. The flow is basically the same thing!!!
Now for the Actual Football-Only Stuff
I want to see Gabe Peterson hitting hard. I want to see Kaian Roberts-Day penetrating the O-Line. I want to see Nick Session laying out big tackles and creating turnovers. I want to see the defensive backs blitzing.
Now, I don’t want New Mexico State to oversell on the pressure and suddenly leave Micah Alejado with an easy deep ball. But I want to see pressure, and I want to see a lot of it.
Do I think New Mexico State could line up against UNLV right now and win a football game? I doubt it. But that’s not really the comparison I’m making. I’m looking specifically at what UNLV’s defense did against Hawai‘i’s offensive line and asking whether New Mexico State’s defense can create some of those same problems.
And in that matchup, I really like the Aggies’ chances.
According to PFF data reported by The Scarlet Standard, Hawai‘i’s offensive line allowed 12 pressures against Stanford. Boogie Henderson and Judah Kaio were charged with four apiece, while Lipe Moala and Dean Briski allowed two each. Ethan Spencer didn’t allow a pressure in 62 pass-blocking snaps.
Then things got worse against UNLV. PFF data reported by The Scarlet Standard credited Henderson with allowing eight pressures — seven hurries and one quarterback hit — while the rest of Hawai‘i’s offensive line combined to allow five more.
That’s 25 PFF pressures through two games, and Alejado has been sacked seven times.
Against UNLV, all that pressure helped turn the preseason Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year into a 17-of-41 passer.
Make him move. Make him uncomfortable. Make him throw the football before he wants to.
Maybe one of those throws goes awry and Session — or somebody else in that secondary — is waiting for it.
I picked Hawai‘i to beat Stanford in Week Zero, and I was surprised when they didn’t. I was surprised by how that game ended. But after seeing what Stanford did and then what UNLV was able to do a week later, I think there’s a blueprint sitting there for New Mexico State.
Yeah, forcing another turnover would be great. That’s the cliché answer. But turnovers can be the result of everything else I’m talking about. Get to Alejado. Hit him. Hurry him. Make him uncomfortable enough that eventually he gives you an opportunity.
That’s why I really think the key to the Aggies winning this game is the defense, not the offense.
I think we’ve got a pretty good idea of what this New Mexico State offense can be, although it hasn’t been consistently effective through the first two games. Saturday night, though, is a chance for the other side of the ball to make its statement.
This is a game for Session, Peterson, Roberts-Day and the rest of that Aggie defense to shine.
GIVE ME SIX
I think if the Aggies can average somewhere in the neighborhood of six yards per play, that’s probably what they’re going to need to win this game.
Six yards per play isn’t necessarily explosive, but it’s a hell of a lot more dynamic than what we saw against Florida State. New Mexico State averaged just 4.83 yards per play in Tallahassee. Against Mercyhurst, that jumped all the way to 8.52.
Now, granted, there was an 83-yard touchdown pass to Terrione Graves last week. There was also a 46-yard completion to T.K. King, and you can see how those explosive plays start juicing the averages.
But it wasn’t just the passing game.
New Mexico State averaged only two yards per carry against Florida State. A week later, the Aggies nearly tripled that, averaging 5.6 yards per carry against Mercyhurst, with James Jones accounting for 137 rushing yards.
When I listen to the fantasy football heads talk about NFL quarterbacks, one of the general efficiency numbers they always bring up is yards per pass attempt. And the number you usually hear is somewhere around seven. Get to around seven yards per attempt, and chances are your quarterback had a pretty efficient day.
New Mexico State averaged 6.33 yards per pass attempt against Florida State and a ridiculous 13.83 against Mercyhurst.
Of course, Adam Damante was part of that second number with his touchdown pass, and Trey Hedden’s 83-yard touchdown to Graves juices it considerably. But that’s also part of the point: this offense has demonstrated some legitimate home-run capability.
Even the touchdown passes against Florida State showed glimpses of what I think this offense can eventually become.
But maybe the most encouraging number for the Aggies through two games is on third down.
New Mexico State went 10-of-17 against Florida State and 7-of-13 against Mercyhurst. That’s 17-of-30 through two games, or 56.7 percent.
That’s a damn good number.
And even the Mercyhurst performance is somewhat skewed by how slowly New Mexico State started during the first quarter and a half before the offense finally got rolling.
I think Hedden is the real deal.
Can he outduel Alejado on Saturday night? I don’t know. But Hedden can’t afford to be inconsistent.
At Furman last season, Hedden earned a 76.1 PFF passing grade with 14 big-time throws. The flip side was 14 turnover-worthy plays.
So far, so good at New Mexico State.
Hedden has thrown four touchdowns against only one interception through two games, and even that interception against Florida State was a little fluky.
Give me six yards per play. Keep converting third downs. Find two or three of those home-run plays.
Do that, and I think the Aggies give themselves a pretty good chance to leave Honolulu with that Crimson W.
NO EXCUSES
One thing I don’t want to hear as an excuse Saturday night is conditioning.
I made conditioning a point of emphasis going into the Week Zero game against Florida State. That’s different. The Aggies should be conditioned by now.
After watching the Rams completely blow a game against the 49ers last night in Melbourne, Australia, a lot of the conversation centered around the travel: long flight, short window to recover, play the game and then fly all the way back home.
By the time New Mexico State kicks off Saturday night, the Aggies will have been in Honolulu for about 50 hours. That’s roughly twice as much time to relax, hydrate, stretch out and make sure everything is properly activated as the Rams had before playing the 49ers.
And make no mistake about it: even those 6-foot-5, 350-pound offensive linemen are conditioned athletes in my book. It takes a lot to be that big, that hefty and that strong and still do what these guys do on a football field. Just because you’ve got a beer belly doesn’t mean you’re not an athlete.
So I’m giving these guys the benefit of the doubt.
I think the Aggies will be fine after the long flight. Heck, in the grand scheme of things, the distance from Las Cruces to Honolulu isn’t that much farther than the distance from Las Cruces to Tallahassee.
The weather shouldn’t provide much of an excuse, either.
We’re looking at temperatures in the low 80s around kickoff with roughly 60 percent humidity and winds around 13 mph. Hawai‘i has dealt with plenty of torrential rain lately, but right now it looks like that should stay away Saturday night.
In other words, the conditions should be pretty damn good for a football game.
So if weather isn’t the deciding factor and travel isn’t the deciding factor, we’re back to football.
THIS OPPONENT HAS A PULSE
Hawai‘i’s Bishop Gorman graduate DeVon Rice has had some modest success on the ground through two games, carrying the ball 26 times for 108 yards and a touchdown.
And when Alejado has thrown the football, he’s had to rely on some pretty small targets.
Kainoa “Kaikai” Carvalho has been one of his top receivers with six catches for 98 yards. He’s a redshirt freshman listed at just 5-foot-6.
Then there’s Blaze Kamoku, another 5-foot-6 receiver who has six catches so far this year.
But there’s one guy I’m watching Saturday night, assuming he’s finally healthy: Pofele Ashlock.
Ashlock is a 6-foot-2, 180-pound senior wide receiver, and compared to some of these little dudes Hawai‘i has been throwing the football to, he might look like Godzilla out there.
And he’s not just big. He’s proven.
Ashlock was named second-team All-Mountain West last season after catching 76 passes for 827 yards and eight touchdowns. He hasn’t recorded any statistics through Hawai‘i’s first two games this year.
If Alejado suddenly gets that big, experienced target back Saturday night, New Mexico State’s defensive backs are going to have to be very aware of where he is on the field.
If Ashlock doesn’t play, though, I think the Aggies have the size and physicality to match up pretty well with what Hawai‘i has been putting on the field.
And here’s the other thing: give Hawai‘i a healthy dose of the running game.
Hawai‘i’s opponents are averaging 203 rushing yards per game, piling up 406 yards on 81 carries through two games. They’ve allowed 20 rushing first downs compared with 16 through the air.
Meanwhile, opposing quarterbacks haven’t exactly needed to throw the ball all over the yard to beat them. Hawai‘i’s opponents are averaging 213 passing yards per game.
That’s what jumps out to me. Teams haven’t needed some elaborate 50-pass game plan to move the football against Hawai‘i. They’ve been able to run it, stay efficient and take their shots when they’re available.
Hawai‘i itself is 17-of-39 on third down, about 44 percent, and 3-of-4 on fourth down. So Timmy Chang isn’t afraid to leave his offense on the field when fourth down comes around.
Ball security has been another issue. Hawai‘i has put the football on the ground four times through two games, although it has lost only one of those fumbles.
And when the Rainbow Warriors actually get into the red zone, they generally come away with something. They’re 4-of-6 on red-zone opportunities, with three touchdowns.
So, Aggies, make no mistake about it: this opponent has a pulse.
This is a team much closer to New Mexico State’s level than Mercyhurst was — and, on the other end of the spectrum, much closer to New Mexico State than Florida State was.
This is finally the matchup where we might learn something meaningful about the 2026 Aggies.
MAKE 0-2 FEEL LIKE 0-2
The Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 after winning nine games last season. This was a team a lot of people expected to contend in a much different Mountain West, one without the Boise States and San Diego States of the world.
Hawai‘i was picked to finish fourth in the conference behind UNLV, New Mexico and newcomer North Dakota State. The Mountain West preseason outlook talked about Hawai‘i having a high-powered offense and top-tier quarterback play.
Well, through two games, we’ve seen neither.
That’s exactly why I keep telling you I don’t put much stock into preseason rankings. They don’t tell the real tale. Sometimes you’ve got to put the pads on and play a couple of football games before anybody actually knows what you’ve got.
Look at Kennesaw State last year. They were picked to finish last in Conference USA. They were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the FBS.
They won the whole conference.
So I’m genuinely surprised Hawai‘i has struggled as much as it has. And sometimes when a season starts going sideways, I think it can get into your head. You start wondering when the next bad thing is coming. One loss becomes two. Two becomes three. Suddenly it feels like the wheels are coming off.
That’s where New Mexico State has an opportunity.
If Alejado, Timmy Chang and the Rainbow Warriors start feeling that pressure Saturday night, the Aggies have to capitalize on it.
Get some first downs. Get Alejado into third-and-long. Make a couple of big plays. Force him into a mistake. Don’t give Hawai‘i anything cheap that suddenly makes them feel good about themselves again.
Make an 0-2 football team feel like it’s 0-2.
Do that, and I really think New Mexico State can win this game.
THE PREDICTION
Now here’s the crazy thing about my prediction.
According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, Hawai‘i was nearly a 90 percent favorite the last time I checked a few days ago. I don’t look at the thing every single day, but Hawai‘i was sitting somewhere around a 90 percent chance to beat New Mexico State.
Since then, that number has moved.
A solid performance by New Mexico State — and probably more importantly, two poor performances by Hawai‘i to begin the season — has ESPN’s Matchup Predictor giving the Rainbow Warriors an 80.5 percent chance of winning.
That’s still pretty high. And considering Hawai‘i is 11-1 all-time against New Mexico State and this game is being played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, I can certainly understand Hawai‘i being favored.
But here’s the number I really think you should know.
When I was finishing my Mercyhurst recap late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, I saw Hawai‘i open as an 11.5-point favorite.
As of about 4 p.m. Friday, when I was finishing this column?
Hawai‘i -7.
That is a four-and-a-half-point swing in less than a week.
And as far as I can tell, nothing dramatic has happened. I haven’t heard about some massive new injury for either team. I haven’t seen anything that would otherwise explain why this number should move that much.
People liked New Mexico State getting 11.5 points. They liked it enough that the number came down significantly.
The DraftKings numbers I’m looking at now have New Mexico State at +250 on the moneyline, with Hawai‘i at -310. The over-under is 50.5.
So what am I doing with all of that?
I think New Mexico State covers.
I thought +11.5 was ridiculous. At +7, I still think it’s too many points.
Yes, the Aggies have a loss on their record. But that loss came against Florida State, and New Mexico State was competitive. This wasn’t Tennessee last season. This wasn’t Texas A&M two years ago. It wasn’t one of those games where New Mexico State walked into a Power Four stadium and got its doors blown off.
The Aggies were playing football in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to make things interesting.
Hawai‘i lost a close game to Stanford, but by the end it felt like the Rainbow Warriors knew they didn’t have much left. Then UNLV came to Honolulu last week and manhandled them.
Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are.”
New Mexico State is a 1-1 football team.
Hawai‘i is an 0-2 football team.
But I think New Mexico State’s one loss looks a lot different than Hawai‘i’s two.
The lofty preseason expectations haven’t materialized. The high-powered offense hasn’t materialized. And the preseason Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year hasn’t played like one through two games.
So I’m going farther than New Mexico State +7.
I like the Aggies to win the football game.
NEW MEXICO STATE 28, HAWAI‘I 21
I think Trey Hedden and James Jones lead the way.
Who catches the touchdown passes? I’m not sure. T.K. King has 10 catches for 172 yards through two games. I hope he’s healthy. I hope he’s ready to go. If he is, he obviously gives Hedden another home-run threat.
But ultimately, I think Hedden and Jones do enough offensively, and I think the New Mexico State defense makes life uncomfortable enough for Micah Alejado to get this done.
New Mexico State has never won a football game in the Aloha State.
I think that changes Saturday night.
And when it does, the Aggies can lift that Crimson Ruby W I talked about in my Aggie Five-O episode and take it home with them.
That flight back across the Pacific will still be a long one.
But it’ll be a celebratory one.
New Mexico State will head into the bye week at 2-1, with New Mexico waiting on the other side.
Aggies win this game.
James
P.S. See you for a recap either really early Sunday Morning (Talking 4-5am) or Sunday Lunchtime if I am too tired. What? You weren’t going to stay up until 5am to read me. Haha. Then I will give myself 3 days off before we hit football hard again. I love bye weeks