Final Preview and Prediction: Missouri State vs NM State in Midweek CUSA Football Action
The Squared Circle from the 1980s Will Help Me Tell The Tale
Hello, AGGREGATOR readers!
Thank you so much for being here. I’m always happy to give you something new to read, and this football season has been a blast. Two straight months of near-daily columns about Aggie football. That’s a run I’m proud of. Anyone can do a column where they tell you what channel the game is going to be on and what other people are saying. Me? I am going to pivot another way!
Through the 3-3 start, we’ve had some highs, some lows, and a whole lot of fun. I’m thankful for your feedback, your messages, and your passion. This is a creative outlet for me — but it’s also about keeping you informed, entertained, and fired up for what’s next. I never thought I would be doing NM State Aggies content, but now that I am, I intend on being the best at it! How do you not strive to be the best?!?!
And what’s next is Wednesday night under the lights at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Midweek C-USA action on CBS Sports Network (DirecTV Channel 221) as New Mexico State looks to climb to 4-3 — just two wins away from bowl eligibility — against the Missouri State Bears (3-3), led by head coach Ryan Beard.
It’s going to be a fun one, and I’ll get you ready with a creative twist in this column.
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Now, if you give me a little grace, I am going to have some 1980s-era fun talking about NM State vs Missouri State.
I hope you like the art for this column :)
CCW - Crimson Championship Wrestling
Explaining the 2025 Aggies through 1980s-era “Regional” Wrestling
There was a time in my lifetime where the “Sport” of professional wrestling was as segmented as the conference structure was in college football. Most teams rarely played out of their “territory,” and if they did, it was only in a one-off bowl scenario. Fandom exploded for college sports in that era where everything was like that, and frankly the powder keg that is 2020s era Pro Wrestling grew around that time, as local promotions ran regular regional shows often to develop regular customers.
It was a gritty business, and only the strong survived, because you made your bacon through hard work in your territory or “lane” if you will.
Before I continue, I cannot talk old-school wrestling without giving a nod to Las Cruces High School Football star and 4-time World Champion in Pro Wrestling and Hall of Famer, Stan “The Lariat” Hansen!
I caught him towards the end of his career, and he is the embodiment of the subject matter I will talk about here. Legendary!
Anyhoo, this is what 1980s Pro Wrestling looked like:
Every region of the country had their own wrestling league, their own stars, their own way of doing things. You never barged in on someone’s territory and wrestlers were often “lent out” to other promotions to help “get their stars over” which is a wrestling way of saying, making them look good in quality matches for short periods of time.
But everyone was its own business… just like conferences in college sports.
Even though CUSA is spread out across this whole land of ours, and NM State is the westernmost school in the conference, it feels like this conference is insulated like an old wrestling territory at times.
And that’s not a bad thing. CUSA has its own quirks, and this game coming up, a Wednesday Night national TV affair against Missouri State is no different. I mean… who the hell plays on a Wednesday?
"I don’t know how they do things anywhere else, but over here we do it this way.”
A Good Hand, A Great Worker Willin’ to do Business
Meaning that wins and losses aside, this person is doing what they can to create more business for everyone else as well as the company!
Teams you know as “GOOD” will never be ranked because the general public doesn’t know about them. You will never see the Aggies for instance on national TV on a normal time slot and day unless it’s week 0, playing a Power 4 school that will beat them by 50 points, or they make a bowl. It’s life in the “territory.”
All of us are quaking in our boots over 1st place Jax State, who we don’t play this season, and guess what? They are 4-3! Kennesaw State in second is 4-2. Wins and losses don’t matter in wrasslin’, and they sure as heck don’t matter in CUSA. There I said it.
The 3-3 NM State Aggies are a good team, just like the two teams I mentioned above. They really are. I have seen it this season with my own two eyes. This is the 3rd best Aggies team I have witnessed in my 18 years in Cruces. It goes 2023, 2022, 2025, and 2017 as my top 4. Yes, this team is better than the Arizona Bowl winning Aggies, because their defense gets turnovers this year.
Tony Sanchez said it, and I agree… with the exception of the LA Tech game which got away from them in the 4th, the Aggies had the chance to win every other game this season. UNM? Played them tough until the 4th. Liberty? So close, but not enough. Count the three wins and the Aggies could very well have been 5-1 on the season. Know what that gets you in CUSA? The same thing 4-3 Jax State in first gets: Respect from your conference mates, but ignored nationally.
So, with that mindset the Aggies should be ready to get 3 more wins and get to another bowl, not really worrying about what happened before and just focus on what’s happening now. Simple as that.
Aggies have one likely baked in loss at Tennessee which means 3-2 will get it done. Missouri State provides NM State with a big opportunity Wednesday!
Workin’ Hurt
Meaning that injuries have limited the competitor, but the show must go on
“Working hurt” is a phrase every fan of 1980s wrestling knows well. Back then, if you didn’t work, you didn’t get paid. So plenty of wrestlers taped themselves up, limped to the ring, and fought through pain just to collect that check.
College players get paid now — sure — but that mentality still hangs around. Because this week, plenty of guys on both sidelines are working hurt.
For New Mexico State, the offensive line is missing a key piece in Kai Wheeler, who hasn’t been cleared yet from injury. Fortunately, BJ Tolo has stepped in at center and held his own. On defense, Tyler Martinez — who was already playing with a club on his hand — is out again, this time with a lower-body injury that’ll likely sideline him for at least two games.
And the toughest blow came last week when Dakerric Hobbs tore his labrum, requiring season-ending surgery. That’s a massive hole in the Aggie secondary, one that could test their depth the rest of the way.
Quarterback Logan Fife has been dealing with some ankle soreness, but after the way he scrambled and fought for first downs against Liberty, I’m not too worried. He’s got that “taped-up wrist, grit-your-teeth and go” vibe that old wrestling fans would recognize.
The Bears’ Quarterback Question
On the other side, Missouri State’s situation is its own kind of “working hurt” storyline. Their veteran quarterback Jacob Clark, last seen on crutches with a bulky leg brace on the sidelines against Middle Tennessee, is uncertain to play Wednesday night. Clark’s been around college football seemingly forever, and he’s not exactly fleet of foot.
If Clark does play, it could actually benefit the Aggies — because a less mobile quarterback means more opportunities for Aggie pass rushers to create chaos, force turnovers, and maybe land a few highlight-reel sacks.
If he doesn’t play, Missouri State will turn to Deuce Bailey, a freshman from Bowling Green, Kentucky, who has ties to coach Ryan Beard. Bailey is the total opposite — a run-first, improvisational scrambler who can make plays with both his legs and his arm. That kind of dual-threat skill set forces an entirely different defensive approach, and that’s tough to game plan for on a short week.
But even then, Bailey’s making just his second career start. He’s still green — another wrestling term — and that inexperience could lead to the kind of mistakes the Aggies can pounce on.
So no matter who starts under center for Missouri State, the situation plays as a potential advantage for New Mexico State. Either you get the recently injured veteran statue in the pocket, or the rookie still learning to take hits. In wrestling and in football, that’s what we call “a work you can win either way.”
Learn a new hold
In classic wrestling lingo — especially from the 1970s–1980s territory days — the phrase “learn a new hold” was often a sarcastic jab.
It usually meant: “You’re stale — try adding something new to your act.
For the Aggies, that’s been the story all season. The running game has lived at the bottom of the FBS rankings. After a strong showing against Liberty, they finally clawed their way out of last place — moving from 134th to 133rd nationally — but that’s still next-to-last in the country. By every definition, this is still a pass-first team. If they can finally “learn a new hold” and establish any kind of consistent ground game, I love their chances Wednesday night.
Kadarius Calloway had a lot of great moments in the Liberty game, his best as an Aggie. If Stanley, Rudison, and yes, even Fife can supplement him on the running game, I will feel a lot more confident.
Missouri State hasn’t exactly been tearing it up on the ground either. Even with Shomari Lawrence, the FIU transfer averaging 4.5 yards per carry and leading the Bears in rushing for all six games, the team as a whole is only putting up 103 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry — which would rank them around 120th in the nation.
That’s not far from the Aggies’ struggles.
Meanwhile, quarterback Jacob Clark who’s been battling injury and was last seen in a leg brace against Middle Tennessee — remains a question mark. Missouri State hasn’t played since September 27th, which makes his true health and rhythm a mystery. If he’s not ready, that means another start for freshman Deuce Bailey, and that changes the entire offensive identity. He had 18 runs for 17 yards in the last game, and he’s supposed to be the dynamic one, which tells me the Bears offense may be telegraphing what types of plays they run with Bailey over Clark
Clark’s Bears were already one-dimensional with his pocket passing. Without him, they risk becoming no-dimensional relying on a young quarterback who’s still learning what to do when the spotlight hits.
So, just like in the old-school wrestling ring, this game comes down to who can learn a new hold first. Whoever figures out how to run the ball consistently, confidently, and when it matters most is probably walking out of Aggie Memorial with the win.
POP The Crowd
To get a loud, emotional reaction from the audience — cheers, gasps, or excitement — usually from a big move, surprise return, or dramatic moment.
A “pop” is that instant when the fans erupt.
In pro wrestling, when you hit that perfect move — the one that makes the crowd explode — that’s called “popping the crowd.” It’s the moment that turns a good match into a great one. And right now, that’s exactly what New Mexico State’s offense needs.
Even though the Aggies put up 27 points against Liberty and moved the ball with decent rhythm, that wow factor — that defining, crowd-popping play — was missing. There wasn’t that signature deep strike we’ve seen before from T.K. King or T.J. Pride, where Logan Fife launches it 40 yards and hits his man perfectly in stride.
We saw that kind of magic against Sam Houston here in Las Cruces a few weeks ago. But in Lynchburg, it never came. The one true highlight came when T.K. King ripped the ball away from a defender mid-air for what became SportsCenter’s No. 1 play of the night — a catch that deserves a spot in Aggie lore. Still, that was a contested, gutsy grab — not a clean, dialed-up big play.
At home, inside Aggie Memorial, this offense should let it fly. They know the lights, they know the field, and they know how to feed off that home-crowd roar. Missouri State’s defense is solid, but not built to handle burners who can take the top off a secondary. Fife’s got the arm. The receivers have the speed. It’s time to stretch the field and pop the crowd.
Missouri State’s passing attack can do it — they’ve already logged touchdowns of 76, 52, 44, and 42 yards among their top four wideouts. If Jacob Clark is healthy, he can deliver those shots. If Deuce Bailey starts, the arm talent’s there, but the precision might not be.
Either way, the Aggies have a golden chance to get that eruption moment — that deep-ball touchdown that sends the place shaking.
Because sometimes, one big play is all it takes to turn a match into a main event.
“Go Home Heat”
In wrestling, Go Home Heat isn’t the good kind of heat. It’s not when the crowd boos because the villain’s doing their job — it’s when they boo because they’re tired of the act. They’ve seen enough. They’re ready for the bell to ring, the lights to go out, and to just go home.
The whole point of putting on a show is to surprise the audience, to make them believe that every night could be different. That’s what keeps them coming back.
It was interesting — and honestly disappointing — to see how quickly some fans turned on a 3–2 New Mexico State team after last Tuesday’s loss at Liberty. Yes, the Aggies trailed 20–6 at halftime. Yes, there were two muffed punts, a botched kickoff, allowing a KO Return TD, and a handful of costly mistakes that swung the game. But to label it as “same old Aggies” or to say they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory? That’s lazy. That wasn’t the story.
Sometimes football just goes sideways. And last Tuesday, it did.
Now, the task is simple: build off those final two quarters in Lynchburg the ones where the offense actually clicked. Keep that rhythm going here at home in Las Cruces. Be dynamic. Run the ball efficiently. Move the chains. Manage the clock. Don’t give the other team extra possessions.
When the Aggies played that way against Sam Houston, they won by 27 points. If they can capture that same consistency on Wednesday night, they’re not just capable — they’re dangerous.
Defensively, there’s a major opportunity. Missouri State has allowed 23 sacks this season, the most in the FBS. With an injured veteran quarterback and a raw freshman backup, the Aggies’ defense should be licking its chops. Three or four sacks isn’t unrealistic — and that kind of pressure flips field position and wins games.
I want to see the unexpected from this team — the plays that defy the old narrative. Because while some still see the “same old Aggies,” I see a group that’s tougher, more confident, and more self-aware than any Aggie squad we’ve had in years that wasn’t coached by Jerry Kill
Who Goes Over/Gets Over? Final Prediction/Score
When a wrestler “goes over,” it means the booker or promoter decided they’re the one who should win the match because it helps tell the larger story. Sometimes that means pinning an opponent clean in the middle of the ring. Other times, it can mean looking strong even in defeat — what’s called “getting over” with the crowd (earning respect, momentum, or fan support).
So here’s the fact for the New Mexico State Aggies.
In the first three games of the season, they scored a combined 54 points.
(19 vs Bryant, 21 vs Tulsa, and 14 vs LA Tech)
In the last three — against New Mexico, Sam Houston, and Liberty — they’ve put up 84 points. That’s an average of 28 points per game, compared to just 18 points per game through the first three. Their offense is getting better
As currently constructed, I believe this Aggies offense is a 28-points-per-game team consistently. They have too many weapons not to be.
Now the question is — will they give up more than that against Missouri State?
Here’s what Missouri State has done through six games:
13 points vs. USC (HUGE LOSS)
21 points vs. Marshall (win)
10 points vs. SMU (loss)
42 points vs. UT-Martin (FCS) (WIN)
22 points vs. Western Kentucky (loss, but competitive)
22 points vs. Middle Tennessee (win)
That’s not exactly a juggernaut offense. It’s an up-and-down team that can flash, but rarely sustain.
You take away the weird 73–13 loss to USC and the 42–10 win against an FCS opponent, and what you’ve really got is a Missouri State team that hasn’t scored more than 22 points in a game. Yet somehow, they’re 2–2 in those matchups.
We know Western Kentucky can struggle — they lost to FIU and barely beat Missouri State. Middle Tennessee, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the C-USA standings, still gave Missouri State a game. And back in Week 2, at Marshall, the Bears won by just one point against a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team.
Yes, New Mexico State is a middle-of-the-pack Conference USA team too, but I truly believe their offense plays more like a top-half squad. They’ve found rhythm, balance, and confidence. I think it will manifest itself tomorrow.
So here’s my call — not only will the Aggies win, they’ll do it decisively.
🏈 Prediction:
New Mexico State 31, Missouri State 17.
The question marks at quarterback for the Bears are going to be a major factor tomorrow night. The Aggies’ offense, on the other hand, looks ready to take that next step — not just going over, but getting over. I think the Aggies get to 4 wins.
I hope you enjoyed my themed column today, as we hope for an Aggies win!
I will have a special photo posted if the Aggies get win #4 that matches this vibe.
See you late late late Wednesday after the game!
James